How the gig economy is changing: work, risks and decisions ahead

Key takeaways

Gig work spans direct contracting, online platforms and local app-based services. Each arrangement has different rules for finding work, directing it and protecting the people who do it.

• Treat growth claims as a question of measurement. The ILO says current data cannot accurately count everyone engaged in digital platform employment. A comparable US Bureau of Labor Statistics series found that independent contractors in their sole or main job represented 6.9% of US employment in May 2017 and 7.4% in July 2023. That is a useful comparison between two survey waves, but it does not count every side gig or describe a global trend.
• Review tasks before making an AI prediction. A study of postings on one online freelance marketplace found a 25% decline in substitutable skill clusters relative to unaffected clusters after ChatGPT's release, concentrated in projects lasting one to three weeks. Complementary clusters showed no significant aggregate effect. If you rely on flexible talent, map the tasks you source and watch for changes in demand, scope and the value attached to each assignment.
• Flexibility can mean very different degrees of control. In Eurostat's 2022 pilot across 16 EU countries and Norway, 50.4% of digital platform workers offered work on their own initiative, while 24.1% received tasks exclusively from the platform or app. The way work is assigned, evaluated and challenged can matter as much as the headline label attached to a platform.
• Worker outcomes belong in the operating decision. The same Eurostat pilot found that 62.4% of participating platform workers were not covered for unemployment risk. That pilot does not describe every market, but it is a reason to ask about income dependence, time control, safety, benefit coverage and a usable route for disputes before treating flexibility as a complete answer.
• Match the arrangement to the work and review it as conditions change. Bounded specialist assignments can suit online gig platforms, while a continuing role with close direction may need a different model. In the United States, federal employment-tax status turns on the actual relationship, including behavioural and financial control. Rules also differ by jurisdiction and platform scope, so a contract label alone cannot settle the question.

For businesses, start with the task, its duration and who directs it. Check the relevant status rules and keep a record of the work agreed and completed.

What counts as gig work?

Gig work covers several operating models. Direct contractor engagements, temporary agency work and platform-mediated work differ in who sets terms, directs assignments and keeps records.

Platform work, direct contracting and temporary employment

Name the arrangement before planning the engagement. A direct contractor, a temporary agency worker and a platform worker may all take short assignments, but the relationships differ.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics collects independent contractors and temporary help agency workers as separate categories for a person’s sole or main job. It also measures contingent status separately from alternative work arrangements because the categories can overlap. Those distinctions are a useful reminder: a short assignment, a contractor agreement and a platform listing may describe related features of work, but they do not describe the same thing.

For a business, begin with the relationship you are actually creating. Identify the parties, the task, the expected duration and whether an intermediary has a role in the engagement. That makes the later questions about control, status and documentation much clearer.

Online work and location-based services

Digital platform work includes online crowdwork, which can be performed regardless of where the contractor is located. A designer taking a remote task through an online platform and a local driver accepting work through an app can both be described as platform work, yet their day-to-day conditions can differ sharply.

The International Labour Organization distinguishes crowdwork from work on demand through apps. Keep that division in view when you discuss the future of gig work: online assignments can be sourced across locations, while location-based services depend on where the work takes place. A single trend claim rarely fits both.

How platforms match work, set terms and manage reputation

A platform may let contractors publish offers, choose from client requests or receive assigned tasks. Check its terms for each assignment and how a contractor can challenge a decision.

Reputation also deserves a practical question: can a rating, completed-work record or other account history affect access to future assignments? The answer affects how dependent a contractor may become on one intermediary. Record the answer alongside the task scope and contract terms instead of treating every platform arrangement as interchangeable.

Is the gig economy growing?

No single verified figure captures growth in all gig work worldwide. First check whom a measure counts, how much activity qualifies, its period and its denominator. Otherwise, different forms of work get folded into one misleading trend.

Choose the measure before comparing growth claims

The International Labour Organization says current sources cannot accurately estimate the total number of people in digital platform employment. It calls for internationally harmonised statistical standards because existing measures differ in coverage and definition.

The unit could be people whose main job is contracting, people who used a platform during a stated period, second jobs, posted assignments or completed assignments. Those measures answer different questions and cannot be combined into one global trend.

For a business decision, record the measure before you compare a trend. If your concern is access to specialist contractors, an assignment measure may be relevant. If your concern is the stability of a core contractor workforce, a main-job measure answers a closer question.

What comparable participation data can show

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics provides one bounded comparison. Independent contractors on their sole or main job represented 6.9% of US employment in May 2017 and 7.4% in July 2023. Both figures apply to employed people age 16 and over and use the same category and denominator.

The change shows a difference between two comparable survey waves. It does not show an annual path between those dates, and it does not establish what happened in other countries or in every form of platform work. The comparison is useful within its defined main-job measure.

Why country rankings and 2030 totals need caution

The BLS series covers a person’s sole or main job. Its survey also measured second jobs separately, so the main-job figures cannot count every side gig. That boundary matters in any comparison with sources that count platform activity, occasional work or completed assignments.

Two observations also cannot produce a defensible forecast. The BLS collected comparable data periodically before the 2023 wave; it did not publish an annual growth path from 2017 onward. Country rankings and 2030 totals need comparable definitions, populations and periods before they can inform an operating decision. Treat them as prompts for better questions before making staffing or sourcing commitments.

Where demand and skills are changing

Demand differs across online tasks, local services and specialist projects. For sourcing, the relevant questions are which tasks you need, how long they last and whether the required skills are changing.

Digital work, local services and specialist projects

A remote specialist assignment can draw from outside the local market. App-mediated services tied to a place have a different talent pool and different working conditions.

The World Bank describes surveyed firms using online gig platforms for specific skills and short-term assignments when demand fluctuates. That use case is clearest when the work has a defined outcome and a duration the team can explain. Before opening a role to flexible sourcing, separate a bounded project from work that needs continuing direction, institutional knowledge or close coordination.

AI can substitute for some tasks and complement others

AI is changing demand at the task level, with different results across skill clusters. A study of more than three million postings on one online freelance marketplace grouped work into 116 skill clusters and compared changes after ChatGPT’s launch.

The study found that postings in substitutable clusters were 25% lower relative to unaffected clusters after the launch, with the decrease concentrated in projects lasting one to three weeks. Complementary clusters showed no significant aggregate effect, and individual clusters varied. The finding concerns postings on one digital marketplace; it does not describe completed engagements, contractor earnings, location-based app work or the global workforce.

Use that distinction in your planning. Review short, repeatable assignments first, then decide whether the task needs a different scope, a human review step or a skill mix that pairs people with new tools. Avoid treating a change in one kind of task as a prediction for every contractor role.

Cross-border access and its practical limits

Online crowdwork can be performed regardless of location, which makes it possible to consider specialists beyond a single local market. That reach does not remove the need to define the engagement carefully.

Before you source across borders, establish where the work will be performed, who directs it, which terms apply and which records the parties must retain. A location-neutral online task may still require a jurisdiction-specific status review and clear documentation. Control, applicable rules and the available records should shape that decision.

How platforms change control over work

Platform design affects who initiates work, whether contractors can decline it and how they challenge decisions. Check those terms before choosing an intermediary.

Matching, reputation and dependence on one intermediary

Eurostat’s 2022 pilot captures three different ways contractors received work. Among digital platform workers aged 15–64 who had done at least one hour of work in the last month across 16 EU countries and Norway, 50.4% offered or uploaded work on their own initiative. Another 25.5% chose among client offers or demands, while 24.1% received tasks exclusively from the platform or app on their main platform.

The findings apply to the pilot’s population and markets. They make the practical question clear: how does a contractor obtain the next assignment? The same pilot found that 20.1% of participants could potentially be affected by rejecting a task. Ask whether refusing work, losing a rating or relying on one account can change a contractor’s access to future assignments.

Algorithmic allocation, evaluation and human review

Automated systems can support decisions about work allocation, evaluation and access. For defined platform work, EU Directive 2024/2831 gives people performing that work a right to an explanation for decisions taken or supported by automated decision-making systems, along with human review of significant decisions.

The directive covers defined digital labour platforms and platform work. Its national implementation details need a country-specific review. Outside its scope, the operating question remains useful: identify which decisions are automated, who can explain them and how a contractor can ask for a human reconsideration.

Fees, disputes and portable work history

Before you commit to a platform, make the commercial and operational terms visible. Identify what the business and contractor each owe, when a dispute can be raised, who decides it and what record is kept of the outcome. Those answers matter when a task is rejected, a rating is contested or an account relationship ends.

Ask whether contractors can retain evidence of completed assignments, agreed deliverables and resolved disputes in a form they can use elsewhere. When using a platform, establish how much of the work history and decision trail remains visible outside that intermediary.

What makes flexible work sustainable?

Sustainable flexible work requires meaningful choice over assignments, a way to manage uneven income and support when something goes wrong. A preference for contracting says little about those conditions on its own.

Autonomy, working time and income variability

In July 2023, 80.3% of US independent contractors whose sole or main job was contracting said they preferred that arrangement, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Preference is an important part of the picture, yet it does not establish that every contractor has stable income or control over working time.

Eurostat’s 2022 pilot offers another view of dependence on platform work. Among last-month digital platform workers in 16 EU countries and Norway, 52.2% earned less than one quarter of their total personal earned income from platform work, while 23.4% earned three quarters or more. The two groups can face different consequences when assignment volume, terms or access to a platform changes.

Ask how much income depends on a given arrangement, whether work can be declined without harmful consequences and how far working time is actually under the contractor’s control. The answers are more useful than a general claim that flexibility benefits everyone in the same way.

Benefits, safety and social protection

In the same Eurostat pilot, 62.4% of digital platform workers were not covered for unemployment risk, 56.3% were not covered for sickness risk and 54.2% were not covered for work-related accident risk. The pilot covers 16 EU countries and Norway, and coverage can come from another job or source, so these figures do not describe every platform worker or every jurisdiction.

They do show why a flexible-work review should include protection alongside task design. For each arrangement, ask which coverage applies, what happens after an accident or illness, and where a contractor can turn if work stops unexpectedly. A business that understands these questions can set clearer expectations and avoid treating flexibility as a substitute for every form of support.

Access, inclusion and bargaining power

Access to flexible work is more durable when a contractor can build value across more than one context and can understand the terms of each engagement. Melissa Wong offers this practical advice:

distribute your time investments across different contexts to diversify where you create value.

— Melissa Wong, host of Coherence Podcast

Diversifying contexts can broaden where a contractor creates value, but it does not guarantee an income outcome or protect against a shift in demand. For businesses and contractors alike, the useful review is practical: can people understand the terms, preserve a record of completed work and avoid relying on a single route to assignments? Those questions make bargaining power and access more concrete than an abstract promise of flexibility.

How do rules change the engagement decision?

Status depends on the actual relationship, the jurisdiction and sometimes the role of a platform intermediary. Check those facts before an engagement becomes routine and again when the work or level of control changes.

The actual relationship matters more than its label

For US federal employment-tax status, the Internal Revenue Service looks at evidence of behavioural control, financial control and the relationship between the parties. A contract that calls someone an independent contractor is one part of the record; it does not replace a review of how the work is actually directed.

Make the operational facts easy to examine. Record who sets the task, who determines how it is carried out, whether the contractor can take other work and how the parties organise the engagement. Those details support a more reliable status review than a label used on its own.

US and UK status checks answer different legal questions

US federal tax guidance and UK status rules should not be collapsed into one global test. UK government guidance says that a self-employed contractor can have one status for tax purposes and a different status in employment law.

If your team works across jurisdictions, identify the question before you start the review. A tax-status question, an employment-rights question and a platform-work question may require different facts and different local rules. Keep the country, work location and operating model with the engagement record so the review has the context it needs.

EU platform rules and the limits of global standards

EU Directive 2024/2831 applies to defined digital labour platforms and people performing platform work. Direct contractor engagements outside that scope are not automatically covered by the directive. Where facts indicating direction and control are found under national law, collective agreements or practice, the directive requires a legal presumption of an employment relationship; it does not make the same determination for every platform arrangement.

EU member states must transpose the directive by 2 December 2026, so national implementation needs a country-specific check. The ILO’s Convention No. 193 also becomes binding only for member states that ratify it and then implement it through national law. Use global standards to frame the questions you ask, while making the engagement decision against the rules that actually apply.

When does gig work fit a business?

A bounded assignment with a clear outcome can suit flexible sourcing. Work that needs continuing direction or deep internal context calls for a closer look at the engagement model.

Match the arrangement to task, duration and continuity

The World Bank describes surveyed firms using online gig platforms for specific skills and short-term assignments when demand fluctuates. That is a clear use case for a defined project: the team can set the outcome, agree the scope and close the work without making the arrangement carry responsibilities it was not designed to handle.

Start by writing down four details:

• the result the business needs;
• the expected duration;
• the level of direction required during the work; and
• whether the role needs continuing access to internal context after the assignment ends.

Where the work is open-ended or depends on close, continuing direction, revisit the engagement model before treating a contractor arrangement as the default answer.

Balance access to talent with quality and coordination

Access to specialist contractors has value only when the business can define and assess the work. Agree the deliverable, the acceptance point and the person who can answer questions about the scope. That gives both sides a clearer basis for judging whether the assignment is complete.

Coordination also needs an owner. Decide who will share context, review the work and capture the result for the rest of the team. If several contractors contribute to one outcome, set the interfaces between their tasks before work begins. This prevents a flexible sourcing decision from leaving the internal team to reconstruct ownership and progress later.

Choose direct, platform or mixed sourcing

Choose the route after you have defined the work. A direct contractor engagement may suit a known specialist and a clearly documented task. A platform route may suit a business that wants an intermediary in the engagement. A mixed approach can be considered when different assignments need different levels of access, coordination or platform support.

In every case, test the same operating questions: who is engaged, who controls the work, where the work is performed, what terms apply and which records will be retained. The route should make those answers easier to manage, not obscure them.

What records should a contractor programme keep?

Connect each engagement to its task, deliverable, acceptance and rights record. A finance, operations or legal reviewer should be able to see what was agreed and completed without reconstructing it from messages and folders.

Agreements, tasks, deliverables and acceptance

Use a record chain that separates the agreement, the defined task, the deliverable and the acceptance record. This proposed operating checklist gives each stage of the engagement a distinct place in the file. It has no universal legal force.

The distinction matters when work grows beyond a few familiar contractors. A signed agreement can state the framework for the engagement, while a task record identifies the work requested and a deliverable record shows what was produced. An acceptance record then captures the business decision that the agreed work was received.

Bryan Driscoll puts the practical point simply:

A contract is only as strong as its enforceability.

— Bryan Driscoll, non-practicing lawyer and HR consultant

Keep the records connected to the assignment they concern. A generic agreement without a clear task or a completed deliverable without an acceptance trail leaves a reviewer to infer too much.

Rights documentation for commissioned work

For US website or content work commissioned from a contractor, delivery does not by itself establish that the hiring party owns the contractor’s copyright. The US Copyright Office says the contractor can remain the author and copyright owner unless the hiring party obtains a signed written transfer. US copyright law generally requires a written transfer signed by the rights owner or authorised agent.

Treat the rights document as a separate record in the chain. Confirm what the task says about the result, whose rights are being transferred and whether the signed document matches the work actually commissioned. This US copyright example needs a separate legal check for other countries and types of work.

Reviewable records as the team grows

As contractor volume increases, a central record should make it possible to follow an engagement from task through close. 4dev.com’s central register contains tasks, statuses, contracts, closing documents and engagement history. The test for any system is whether its records answer the reviewer’s questions.

The useful test is whether a reviewer can answer a few basic questions without chasing people for context:

• What work was agreed and who approved it?
• What was delivered and when was it accepted?
• Which terms and rights record apply to that result?
• Where is the engagement history kept?

If those questions need several disconnected tools or personal recollection, bring the relevant records together before the programme becomes harder to audit and operate.

Which signals should trigger a strategy review?

Revisit a contractor strategy when the work, platform terms or applicable rules change. A shift in any one can make the original engagement decision outdated.

Demand and skills

Start a review when the tasks you source change in volume, duration or skill mix. The marketplace study discussed earlier found that the decline in substitutable skill-cluster postings after ChatGPT’s release was concentrated in projects lasting one to three weeks, while complementary clusters showed no significant aggregate effect. The finding makes specific assignments the right unit to inspect before changing a contractor programme.

Watch for redesigned repeatable tasks, a new need for human review or a change in specialist demand. Update scope and acceptance criteria when those signals change what the team expects from a contractor.

Worker outcomes and platform control

Review the arrangement when a platform changes how tasks are offered, assigned, evaluated or challenged. In Eurostat’s 2022 pilot, 24.1% of last-month digital platform workers received tasks exclusively from the platform or app, and 20.1% could potentially be affected by rejecting a task. These pilot findings from 16 EU countries and Norway show why control belongs in the operating review.

Worker outcomes also call for attention when income dependence, time control, dispute routes or protection coverage changes. Ask whether contractors can decline assignments, understand important decisions and obtain a human review where it matters. If the answers change, reassess the platform’s role and the engagement terms.

Applicable rules and operating load

Review the engagement when the work crosses into a new jurisdiction, direction and control increase, or a platform changes its role in the arrangement. US federal employment-tax status considers behavioural control, financial control and the parties’ relationship. In the UK, tax status and employment-law status can differ. These examples call for a jurisdiction-specific review of the engagement beyond its contract label.

For EU platform work, national implementation of Directive 2024/2831 requires attention: member states must transpose it by 2 December 2026. Operational load is also a signal. If the team can no longer identify the applicable terms, task, acceptance record and rights position without gathering documents from several places, bring the record chain back into view and update the process.

Frequently asked questions

What is the future of the gig economy?

The future of gig work will vary by task, platform design and jurisdiction. Online crowdwork, local app-based services and direct contracting do not follow one path. Businesses should watch how demand changes for specific skills, how platforms allocate and evaluate work, and whether the engagement still fits the work being done.

Is the gig economy growing or declining?

There is no single verified global answer. The International Labour Organization says current data cannot accurately estimate everyone engaged in digital platform employment. In one comparable US measure, independent contractors on their sole or main job represented 6.9% of employment in May 2017 and 7.4% in July 2023. That comparison does not include every side gig or establish a global trend.

Will AI replace gig workers?

AI can change demand for particular tasks, but the evidence does not support a universal prediction. A study of one online freelance marketplace found fewer postings in substitutable skill clusters after ChatGPT’s launch, especially in projects lasting one to three weeks. Complementary clusters showed no significant aggregate effect, and the study did not measure the global workforce or completed engagements.

Which country has the biggest gig economy?

No country can be named as the biggest on a comparable basis from these measures. Counts use different populations, activity thresholds and periods. A useful ranking would first need the same definition across countries, such as main-job independent contractors or platform activity during a stated period.

What are the main risks for gig workers?

The risks depend on the arrangement. They can include limited ability to decline work without consequences, unclear automated decisions, income dependence on one platform and gaps in protection. In Eurostat’s 2022 pilot across 16 EU countries and Norway, 62.4% of digital platform workers were not covered for unemployment risk; the figure is specific to that pilot and does not describe every market. Review control, dispute routes, income dependence and applicable coverage together.

How should a business choose between a contractor and an employee?

Start with the actual work relationship and the rules that apply where the work is performed. Define the task, expected duration, degree of direction, need for continuing internal context and the records the team must retain. For US federal employment-tax status, the Internal Revenue Service considers behavioural control, financial control and the parties’ relationship. A contract label on its own does not settle the question.

What this means for businesses and workers

Gig work follows different paths across tasks and platforms. Businesses need an arrangement that fits the work and a record of its terms and outcomes. Contractors need to know how assignments are made and how to challenge a significant decision.

For businesses, make the engagement review part of normal operations. Define the task and expected duration, identify who directs the work, check the rules that apply where it is performed and retain the agreement, deliverable, acceptance and rights records together. Revisit those details when a role becomes more continuous, platform control changes or the programme grows.

For contractors, the practical questions are equally concrete: how is work assigned, can it be declined, how much income depends on the arrangement and what support applies if work stops or a decision is disputed? Clear answers make it easier to judge whether flexibility offers meaningful choice in the specific engagement.

Review the arrangement when the work changes; a forecast cannot do that for you.

Sources

• International Labour Organization, Decent work in the platform economy
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Contingent and Alternative Employment Arrangements — July 2023
• International Labour Organization, Digital labour platforms: the number of platforms and workers
• Teutloff et al., The impact of generative AI on online labor markets
• World Bank, The global online gig economy: assessing gendered impacts for workers and firms
• Eurostat, Employment statistics — digital platform workers
• Eurostat, Digital platform workers and social protection
• Internal Revenue Service, Topic no. 762: Independent contractor vs. employee
• UK Government, Employment status: Self-employed contractor
• European Union, Directive (EU) 2024/2831 on improving working conditions in platform work
• International Labour Organization, How will Convention No. 193 promote decent work in the platform economy?
• US Copyright Office, Circular 66: Copyright registration of websites and website content
• US Copyright Office, 17 USC §204(a)
• Melissa Wong, Five ways to build a resilient freelance career in the dawn of AI
• Bryan Driscoll, Freelancer contract enforceability